What Will Happen to Mortgage Rates in 2026?

If you’re hoping to buy a home in 2026, there's a mix of good and bad news about mortgage rates. Experts expect mortgage rates to drop a bit next year, but don’t count on them going much lower than 6%.

Even a small reduction, though, could make it easier for some buyers to afford a home.
 

Recent Mortgage Rate Trends

In 2025, the Federal Reserve lowered its main interest rate by 0.75%. However, this didn’t lead to big changes in mortgage rates. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage stayed around 6.62%—barely lower than the 2024 average of 6.72%.

Experts predict that by the end of 2026, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average between 5.90% and 6.30%.

Mortgage rates don’t always move in step with the Federal Reserve’s rate. Instead, they often follow the 10-year Treasury bond.
 

What the Experts Say

Economists from Realtor.com, the National Association of Realtors, Redfin, and Fannie Mae all believe mortgage rates will go down a bit in 2026.

While this isn’t a huge drop, it could still help people afford homes—especially since wages are now rising faster than home prices for the first time in years.

A lower rate—by even half a percentage point—combined with higher incomes could open the door to homeownership for more people.
 

The Challenge: Not Enough Affordable Homes

However, the bigger problem is that there aren’t enough homes that middle-income Americans can afford.

Nadia Evangelou, a senior economist at the National Association of Realtors, says the U.S. is about 500,000 homes short for people earning around $75,000 a year, with not enough homes priced at or below $260,000.

Even so, 2026 could be a bit easier for homebuyers than 2025, with slightly lower rates and higher incomes.
 

Top Lenders for First-Time Homebuyers in 2026

Here are some good options if you’re planning to buy your first home in 2026:
 

• Best for Low Rates: Better
  • Online-only lender (no in-person locations)
  • Can offer lower rates by saving on costs
  • Fast preapproval (about three minutes)
  • Offers several loan types (including FHA and jumbo loans)
  • Requires a minimum credit score of 620 and down payment of 3.5% for FHA loans
• Best for In-Person Service: Chase Bank
  • Over 4,000 locations nationwide
  • Special loans for first-time buyers (like the DreaMaker mortgage with just 3% down)
  • Some buyers may qualify for up to $10,000 to help with the down payment or closing costs
  • Doesn’t offer USDA loans
  • Minimum credit score needed: 620
• Best Online Experience: Rocket Mortgage
  • Top customer satisfaction ratings
  • Helpful online tools and support
  • Offers grants for low down payments (up to $7,000 for qualifying buyers)
  • Many loan options, including ones with just 1% down
  • No in-person locations

These are just a few options. If you want to see more choices, look up lists of the best mortgage lenders for 2026.
 

Final Thoughts

While mortgage rates probably won’t go much below 6% in 2026, even a small drop can make a big difference—especially if your income is going up.

The main challenge will still be finding affordable homes, but the outlook for buyers is a bit brighter than before.

If you’re looking to buy a home, it’s a good idea to compare lenders and see what offers and help you may qualify for.

-

Get updates on the latest articles about the housing and rental market. Click here to subscribe!