2024-06-04

Major retailers are lowering prices (finally)

It could be a head fake but I am starting to think we are about to witness a pretty large move across financial markets, in general.

We were in kind of a range trade or maybe even worse as it looked like markets were headed for a bad fall with higher rates, but boy, have things turned around fast. Where to begin? First, crude is heading to what looks like a six handle. Hugely positive. This despite two brutal wars.

Second, the cost of money is getting cheaper fast. Lower energy prices help but so do other factors like the Atlanta Fed sharply lowering Q2 GDP forecasts; turmoil in markets abroad including Mexico and India due to political outcomes investors find for now to be lousy; and then how about that story no one is talking about how Walgreen's and other major retailers are looking to lower prices on like 1,300 items to make things easier on consumers. If that isn't price fixing or a shot across the bow that inflation may finally be about to ebb, I dunno know what to tell you.

Here's the story

Net, net, net: this is all becoming terribly exciting extremely quickly. Vix under 14. BTC>$70k.

The reason I am paying such close attention to all this is I am convinced if the Fed ever gets comfortable with easing and is able to do so, this will light a candle under housing and refinances. Home Depot stock will trade like GameStop; OK, not really, but you get the idea. I'm telling you: we may not be there yet but this recent data stuff is very positive if you like cheap money. And who doesn't like to save money on One a Day Gummy Vitamins, among other things.

Enjoy the day. It's beautiful outside. Take a walk.

Category: Finance