What to Expect from Mortgage Rates in May 2026

Mortgage rates have been unpredictable so far in 2026. In February, things looked promising—the average 30-year mortgage rate dropped to 5.87%, and some buyers were getting rates close to 5%. For people who had been waiting years to buy a home, this felt like a much-needed break.

But that relief didn't last long. The conflict with Iran caused fears about rising prices across the economy, and mortgage rates climbed back up. By late March, the average 30-year rate had jumped to 6.37%.

Since then, rates have come back down a bit. As of late April, the average 30-year mortgage rate sits at around 6%. This drop happened because peace talks in the Iran conflict helped calm financial markets.

What Experts Think Will Happen in May

Predicting mortgage rates is tricky, but here's what housing and finance experts are saying:

Rates Will Likely Stay About the Same

Most experts believe mortgage rates will hover in the low-to-mid 6% range throughout May. Here's why:

• No Federal Reserve meeting in May. The Fed's late-April decision is already factored into current rates, and markets expect no changes.
• Two main factors to watch: Inflation reports and progress (or setbacks) in the Iran ceasefire talks will have the biggest impact on rates.

Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality, predicts rates will stay between 6.2% and 6.4%, possibly dipping slightly. Sarah DeFlorio from William Raveis Mortgage expects rates to land between 6.125% and 6.25% by the end of May.

Jordan Del Palacio from Churchill Mortgage is a bit more cautious. He thinks the average 30-year rate could be around 6.50% by the end of May because of ongoing uncertainty about the Iran conflict.

What Could Make Rates Go Down

Rates could fall if:

• The ceasefire holds. If peace talks succeed and the conflict ends, experts expect rates to drop quickly.
• The job market cools off. If unemployment rises toward 4.5% or wages grow more slowly than expected, it could signal to investors that inflation is slowing down, which would push rates lower.
• Treasury yields stay low. For rates to drop significantly, the 10-year Treasury yield needs to stay below 4%.

What Could Make Rates Go Up

Rates could rise if:

• The ceasefire falls apart. If fighting resumes, oil prices could spike, driving inflation higher and pushing rates up.
• Inflation comes in higher than expected. If upcoming reports show prices are still rising faster than hoped, rates will likely climb.
• Treasury yields jump. If the 10-year Treasury yield goes above 4.50%, the 30-year mortgage rate could quickly head back toward 6.75% or higher.

Tips for Homebuyers

No matter what happens with rates, here are some ways to get a better deal:

1. Shop around. Compare offers from at least three lenders to find the best rate and terms.
2. Lock in your rate. If you're worried about rates going up, ask your lender to lock your rate for 30, 45, or 60 days while you search for a home.
3. Ask about a float-down option. Some lenders let you lock your rate now but lower it later if rates drop before you close on your home.

The Bottom Line

Mortgage rates in May 2026 will likely stay in the 6% to 6.5% range, but things could change quickly depending on global events and economic reports.

The key takeaway? Affordability gains can disappear fast, so it pays to stay informed and be prepared when you're ready to buy.

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